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Saturday, June 24, 2006
50/50 Chance
I find it strange that despite advances in technology, accurate weather prediction still eludes us. Understandably, there are tons of variables to take into consideration, but we have very powerful computers and lots of satellites with lots of sensors to try and figure out these such things.
Case and point: The local news was ranting and raving all last week about how an impending heat wave would be upon us this weekend. Even reputable Weather.com issued the following Severe Weather Alert:...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...105 TO 110 IN THE UPPER DESERTS AND AROUND 110 IN THE LOWER DESERTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 85 AND 95 IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND IN THE 70S AT THE BEACHES. If you're wondering where I live, it's considered to be in the inland valley. Now, guess what temperature it is here while I write this?
77 degrees is a far cry from temperatures "generally 100 to 105 degrees." No matter what the forecast says, the chance of whatever they say will happen (i.e. rain, a heat wave, or cloudy skies) can be regressed to a simple coin toss: there seems to be an equal (50/50) chance that their prediction will be correct versus incorrect. Regardless, I'm happy the heat wave isn't here for real.. otherwise, I'd be frying in my seat right now. =)
4:06 PM Albert
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..a life in DUO
